World Cup 2010 Predicition: Who will win?

Well, having gone through all the groups, it’s time to predict the outcome of all the different fixtures the knock-out rounds throw up.   It gets very difficult to predict results from here on in (not that it wasn’t hard to begin with), as predictions can look really silly retrospectively at this point when it contains teams who haven’t made the next stage.   Oh well!   According to my predictions, the knock-out fixtures would be as follows:

• Mexico vs Greece
• USA vs Australia
• Germany vs England
• Argentina vs Uruguay
• Netherlands vs Paraguay
• Brazil vs Chile
• Italy vs Denmark
• Spain vs Portugal

Mexico face Greece at Port Elizabeth and it should be a tight game with Mexico dominating, but I think that Mexico’s inability to deal with crosses may well count against them here and they could be exposed against a defence-focussed Greek side.   Thus, Greece progress winning 1-0  with the Mexican adventure ending in the last 16 yet again.

USA would face Australia in Rustenburg on the same day and I expect this to be a hard-fought passionate encounter.   However, I think Australia will struggle to break the Americans down and the USA will win 2-0 to reach the quarters.

Germany renew their rivalry with England at Bloemfontein on the following day.   I would expect this to be a classic encounter, a cut and counter thrust kind of game, which I think that England will triumph in on this occasion, 3-2 after extra time.

England’s other foes, Argentina would then face Uruguay at Johannesburg, but having beaten them twice in qualifying, I can’t see why Argentina wouldn’t win again.   A losing record can play on the minds of the players and this combined with a quality gap between personnel should ensure that Argentina claim a comfortable 1-0 victory.

The following day, the Netherlands face Paraguay in a game that could be close.   I think that the Dutch will edge it because they are a better attacking side and will be able to breach the Paraguayan defence.   I think both sides will score however in a Netherlands 2-1 win.

Brazil play Chile in a third World Cup encounter in Johannesburg.   I think, just as in the two qualifying games between the two sides, Brazil will claim victory, because they will provide a physicality that the Chileans may not deal well with.   Furthermore, I think Brazil have the passing game to overcome Chile’s high pressure game and will win 3-1.

The first game in the final day of the World Cup second round sees Denmark take on Group E winners and former champions Italy.   I expect this game to be tight, possibly staying 1-1 right the way through 120 minutes to force the competition’s first penalty shoot-out.   Expect the Italians, with the help of Gianluigi Buffon, to come through on penalties, to reach another quarter-final.

In the final game of the second round between Spain and Portugal expect another tight game containing two sides who like to control the possession.   I expect this to be a tight and testing encounter of Spain’s championship credentials, but I think that they will eventually prevail with a goal in extra time, 1-0.

After these fixtures take place, the quarter finals would be structured as follows:

• Netherlands vs Brazil
• Greece vs USA
• England vs Argentina
• Spain vs Italy

The Netherlands’ match against Brazil at Port Elizabeth could turn out to be an excellent quality game of football, but I fear there might not be too many goals.   I suspect, in a tightly fought contest with a test for both side’s defences, Brazil’s better defence may just make the difference giving them a 2-1 victory and passage into the semi-finals.

Between the two surprise quarter-finalists Greece and USA I expect to see another tight encounter in Jo’burg that doesn’t yield any goals for the first 90 minutes with the US being the more positive side.   However, in extra time I think the Americans will fire a goal in leaving Greece needing to score to stay in the competition.   As the Greeks break ranks the USA could score again to attain a 2-0 win and become the first North American side to reach the Semi-finals of the competition.

England beat Germany, but run into their other arch rivals Argentina in the next round.   England won their last encounter with Argentina through a Michael Owen hat-trick, but don’t expect it to count for much as, in particular, Glen Johnson, struggles to deal with the threat of Lionel Messi on the right.   In fact, I think Argentina will get the better of England by being more solid at the back and, despite an England fight back, could triumph 2-1 to send England packing at the Quarters once again.

Spain vs Italy, just like their Euro 2008 meeting will be tight again, but this time I expect Spain to be able to finish the World Champions off in normal time 1-0 to become the only European team left in the competition.

The Semi-finals would then be formed as follows:

• Brazil vs USA
• Argentina vs Spain

In the first contest of the two in Cape Town, I think that the USA will more than meet their match in Brazil, who secure comfortable passage into the final with a 2-0 win.

Meanwhile, I can’t see Argentina beating Spain and suspect they will be beaten 2-0 by a brilliant team performance from the Spanish.

In the third place play-off, I predict that Argentina face the USA and are shocked when the US power into the lead, seizing  an initiative that Argentina do not desire to regain.   Thus I think the USA will win 2-0 in normal time to claim 3rd place.

The grand final in Johannesburg Soccer City, the purists’ dream, against the two best sides in the World, Brazil and Spain, might not prove to be a cracker, but will be a competitive and high quality game nonetheless and too close to call.   I would expect Spain to dominate play, but Brazil will be strong and hard to beat to keep the scores level throughout 90 minutes.   However, I can see a clinical Brazilian side shattering Spanish dreams with a goal in extra time to prevail 1-0 and win their sixth World Cup, though I’m not sure many would like to see this happen (even the Brazilian media apparently resent Dunga’s clinical and pragmatic approach to leading the country.  I would be pretty annoyed myself if this happened actually, as I’d like a new team to win this year.  

Final order:

1. Brazil
2. Spain
3. USA
4. Argentina

So there you have it!   11,000 words and nine separate blogs later I present one possible way the World Cup could be resolved out of millions of possible outcomes (note: total number not actually calculated).   England were eliminated at the Quarter final stage again according to my predictions, so don’t get your hopes up of World Cup glory!   Hope you enjoyed my predictions, which are obviously bound to be wrong, regardless of the effort and housework sacrificed into producing them.   I apologise they were a bit threadbare towards the end (I got bored and tired of writing) and for poor quality control (again bored).   Now it’s time to sit back and see how many results I get right!

So until, next Wednesday when I’ll get back to writing about my journey to Cusco.

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