World Cup 2010 Prediction Group G

So, now the “Group of Death” featuring Brazil, Portugal, the Ivory Coast and North Korea.   I think most are fairly settled on Brazil to get through and North Korea finishing last (despite the fact that we know nothing about the “democratic republic” as it is literally called) with a fight between Portugal and Ivory Coast for the final qualifying spot.   So, is this really a “Group of Death” or pretty formulaic and predictable?   I personally think the latter and suspect that, Brazil excepted, the standard of football will be disappointing to most fans despite the talent on disposal.   Here’s my analysis of the teams:

Brazil are, without doubt, one of the best sides in the competition.    Pele didn’t have to say anything for everyone to know the truth, bar sceptical Brazillians who would, you get the sense, love to see Dunga’s well-drilled efficient winning juggernaut derailed for the sake of pretty football.   It will certainly be a different team to the flamboyant side with no shape that arrived at the 2006 World Cup who were knocked out by a French side rejuvenated by Zinedine Zidane.   They have been shorn of some of the stars of that tournament like Ronaldinho, Ronaldo and Adriano, but they have also been shorn of the individualistic egos that seemed to plague the side.   They may not be pretty like the teams of old, but Brazil will, this year, be ruthless and difficult to stop.   This isn’t to say there will not be any flair in the side, Kaka and Robinho are still there to provide their genius and creativity, just expect the rest of the side to function around them.   Julio Cesar is among the best goalkeepers in the world, whist they have world-class players across the backline (though left-back is a weakness).   Up-front Luis Fabiano is a good all-round striker and is likely to get decent service (and therefore is likely to score a lot).   Expect to see a lot of goals scored (consisting of a number from set pieces), not many goals conceded and Brazil to beat almost everyone in their wake (whether they can beat Spain remains to be seen).

North Korea in contrast to Brazil are rank outsiders in this group, namely because we don’t know anything about them and they are the lowest ranked side at the World Cup by FIFA.   But since when can FIFA account for teams like the Democratic People’s Republic given that they have in the past completely pulled out of all competition.   Similarly, it would be extremely arrogant to dismiss a side purely because none of their players ply their trade in the Premier League.   The main thing we have to base North Korea’s form, particularly as there are limited highlights available to watch, is their qualifying form and their build up to the World cup.   Apparently, we are to expect a tactically solid defensive side (they only conceded 7 in 16 qualifiers) who have an iron spirit, but do not score too many (excluding the Mongolia matches they ionly scored 11 goals in 14 matches).   In World Cup qualifying, they were fairly impressive in terms of resolve, defying the odds to ensure that they, and not much more established sides in Iran, UAE and Saudi Arabia, qualified.   In warm-up games they have shown evidence that they will not be the pushovers everyone was expecting by matching Greece in a 2-2 draw, as well as South Africa in a stalemate, whilst only losing narrowly to Paraguay and Mexico.   However, they were defeated 3-1 in the last match, their first in South Africa, against Nigeria.   Anticipate a feisty display from the Koreans, which ultimately ends with elimination in the first round.

The Ivory Coast are tipped by many to be dark horses in the tournament, but I can’t for the life of me see why beyond the quality of their players.   Sven Goran Eriksson shouldn’t be underestimated as a manager, but surely getting thrust in charge of a divided squad (apparently between graduates of two academies) with only a month to get them playing to their potential is surely too much to ask, especially given that an earlier disastrous stint with Mexico suggests that he may have lost his motivation and touch.   Furthermore, the teams’ form has been mixed; under their previous manager they reached the second round of the African Cup of Nations in some style, but ended up losing a match they should have won against Algeria, eventually in extra time.   Since Sven took over the Elephants have played two games, both in Switzerland, drawing with Paraguay and beating Japan, though they were earlier beaten by South Korea in early March.   One reason so much is expected though is that they have excellent players in a number of positions, with Kolo Toure and Emmanuel Eboue (or the real best player in the World as we Arsenal fans refer to him) in defence (though the defence is cited as a weakness in terms of being a cohesive unit), Yaya Toure and playmaker Gervinho in midfield, whilst Drogba and Kalou are usually the attack pairing.   The fact that Drogba is injured though and probably won’t be at his best this tournament as a result could well be a hammer blow for the African nations’ chances.   Player for player still they would be Africa’s best side.   However, teams win football matches and it is in this regard, in addition to nerve on the big occasion that are the biggest doubts about Africa’s most talented side at the moment.   Expect them to be disjointed and shaky at the back, but strong and attack focussed.

Finally, I’d expect Portugalto come through this group, but they haven’t looked in the best of form.   They have a number of high quality individuals in the form of Deco and the world-famous winker (or at least something that sounds like that) Cristiano Ronaldo (who suprisingly given his club record hasn’t scored for Portugal for well over a year since playing Finland in a friendly in Feb 2009, the last competitive goal was in Euro 2008!), but they haven’t played to their potential under Carlos Quieroz and only scraped through their group by one point to qualify for the play-offs where they beat Bosnia & Herzegovina.   Their defence certainly wasn’t a problem, they only conceded 5 goals in 12 matches, with 4 of those goals coming in the two games against group winners Denmark.   However, they found teams, Malta excluded against whom they bagged 8, difficult to break down and were held to 3 stalemates in 10 qualifiers, including one against Albania.   Post-qualification form has also not been entirely convincing; they beat Cameroon well at home, but also drew 0-0 with Cape Verde.   Expect Portugal to be very strong defensively, monopolise possession but struggle to break opposing teams down at times in games that aren’t open.

Now for some predictions:

Following a face-off between New Zealand and Slovakia, the real entertainment starts as Portugal take on the Ivory Coast in what is regarded as a virtual eliminator, given they are both expected to beat North Korea and lose to Brazil.   Unfortunately, I am not anticipating the cracker most are and I think that Portugal will be too strong to be troubled by the Ivory Coast, who I expect to try to take the game to Portugal.   This will allow the Portuguese to score a couple against the Ivorians, but I anticipate the likes of Ricardo Carvalho will be able to deal with Drogba (if he is fit).   Portugal win 2-0.

This match is followed by North Korea’s showdown with Brazil and the Koreans will fancy their chances.   Unfortunately, no one else in world football will.   Korea will work hard, but run out of puff at altitude creating space for Brazil after a tight opening.   I can’t see North Korea troubling a Brazil defence that will take nothing for granted, but cannot say the same thing visa-versa.   I expect Brazil to win with three unanswered goals 3-0.

Following a disappointing opening game, the Ivory Coast will travel to Johannesburg hoping to re-ignite their campaign against the Brazilians and this should be a tough and bruising encounter.   In the end, I think that Brazil will just have too much about them and edge out the Elephants 2-1 to ensure their progress to the next stage and effectively eliminate the Elephants subject to Portugal avoiding defeat against North Korea the next day.

I expect the match between North Korea and Portugal to be the stunning one of the group.   Portugal will expect to win comfortably given their victory over Brazil, but the North Koreans who will be giving their all for national pride will defend like lions and stun the world by forcing a humiliating stalemate, 0-0.   This would leave Portugal virtually through on goal difference with the DPR needing a five goal reversal to qualify for the next stage (as well as the small matter of a victory against the Ivory Coast).

However, in the final set of games I expect things to become fairly predictable.   Brazil, with only a draw required to top the group will achieve that against Portugal who also only require a draw to secure their place in the next round.   This happens in the form of a 1-1 draw.   Meanwhile, in Nelspruit North Korea are forced to go on the attack against the Ivory Coast and pay the price as they are outmuscled and torn apart.   On the positive note, the Koreans also score their first goal of the tournament before losing 4-1.   Thus, the final standings of a not very tight group are as follows:

• Team           Win   Draw  Lose   F   A  GD    Pts
• Brazil             2          1         0       6   2     4       7
• Portugal       1          2         0       3   1     2       5
• Ivory Coast 1         0         2       5   5     0       3
• Korea DPR   0         1         2       1    7    -6      1

What do other people think?   Final group coming up and then we’re into the knock-out stages!

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