World Cup 2010 Prediction Group F
Not the most exciting group for the neutral containing the current World Cup holders Italy, Paraguay, Slovakia and New Zealand, but I’m sure the countries involved will beg to differ. Many predict a comfortable 1-2 for Italy and Paraguay and I must say that I’m tempted to go with that. Here are my team profiles all the same:
Italy, many say, are lucky that they haven’t been drawn in a more testing group, but I think that, though Italy should still get through, they will be still be given an examination by their rivals. There doesn’t seem to be much optimism surrounding the side which is unusual given they are the current champions. One reason, I suppose, is that many of their players are that bit older now (captain Cannavaro is 36, but he is in good company as around a third of the squad are in their 30s), but the main cause is the lack of consistent form the team have shown in recent times. In the Euros Italy were thrashed 3-0 by the Netherlands, could only draw with Romania but recovered to beat France to reach the second round. Italy were knocked out in the second round on penalties after playing a very negative match against eventual champions Spain, though in fairness it was the closest Spain came to losing all tournament. In the Confederations Cup in 2009, things were much worse. After beating the USA in the first match, Italy were beaten by Egypt and thumped by Brazil to fall out of the tournament. Their qualifying form was reasonably good though getting past the likes of Ireland and Bulgaria unbeaten. Marcello Lippi is back as manager having resigned after winning the last World Cup, which is a reason for hope to be tempered by the fact that he was also in charge during the Confederations Cup campaign. As always with Italy, expect them to be strong defensively and tough to beat.
Italy’s first opponents Paraguay in the meantime are similarly a strong, solid side who are expert on the counter-attack. They should be tricky opponents, that unfortunately I personally don’t know too much more about (other than Roque Santa Cruz of course), but having lost a number of key players over the years, they have coped well in remaining a significant South American force. However, their qualification was impressive, being the only side to beat Brazil without the assistance of altitude (Bolivia also won at home). They were solid defensively, keeping a clean sheet in half of their 18 matches, but were perhaps slightly goal-shy scoring only 19 in 17 when taking the 5-1 thrashing of Ecuador out of the equation. Their form in the warm-up matches has been fairly solid also, winning against Greece and North Korea, earning draws with South Africa and the Ivory Coast and losing just once to Ireland. However, I have heard that Paraguay apparently experiment with their side a lot during friendlies, so it isn’t worth reading too much into these results. Expect them to be up and around qualifying from the group.
Slovakia surprised everyone by topping a group containing the Czech Republic and Poland, but we’re still wondering to what extent this result occurred because of the deterioration of these sides given Slovenia were the other qualifiers and Northern Ireland were there or thereabouts. Defensively, they don’t have the best qualifying record conceding 10 goals in qualifying and taking the San Marino games out of consideration their attack wasn’t entirely prolific either scoring an average of 1.5 goals per game (reasonable). Furthermore, Slovakia’s form in the warm-up games has been pretty inconsistent, featuring a loss against Norway, a draw against Cameroon and a 3-0 win against Costa Rica. Thus, it is hard get a good sense of how good this side actually are. However, expect them to play a short passing game and try to take the game to their opponents with play centring around Napoli’s Marek Hamsik.
New Zealand didn’t have to do a seemingly great deal to be here. They beat some minnows in the form of Fiji, New Caledonia and Vanuatu to get to a play-off against Bahrain who they were outplayed by over two legs, but the All Whites got through due to Plymouth Argyle forward Rory Fallon’s (headed I seem to remember) goal in the Westpac stadium in Wellington. Bahrain even had a penalty to put the Kiwis out on away goals in the second leg, but New Zealand keeper Mark Paston saved the spot-kick. Their Confederation Cup form in 2009 didn’t do much to reassure that the All Whites were up to much either as they conceded seven goals to Spain and South Africa before earning their first point with a goalless draw against Iraq. However, a friendly win against Serbia certainly caught everyone’s attention that Ricki Herbert’s side can be dangerous. They also almost held Australia to a draw before losing 2-1 to a last gasp Holman winner. However, don’t expect too much from New Zealand, they will be physical and earnest, but I can’t envisage them winning a game in this group. A point may well be achievable though.
Now for some predictions…
Italy kick-off the group against Paraguay and I anticipate that this may be quite a nervy stand-offish sort of game that ultimately yields no goals and a solid start for both sides. 0-0.
New Zealand face off against Slovakia the next day with the Slovaks in particular knowing a win would put them in a strong position to win the group. Unfortunately, I’m not sure that New Zealand will manage to keep up with the Slovak Republic’s passing game and lose 3-1, the last being a consolation goal.
Next up is a virtual eliminator for many observers as Paraguay take on the Slovaks. This should be a tight game, which I can see ending up all square. The height of the Slovak defenders should match up well with the height of the Paraguayan attackers, whilst I suspect Paraguay will defend well enough to stop Slovakia from scoring. However, I think both sides will score for a 1-1 draw.
Italy will thus have a chance to eliminate New Zealand and I expect them to do so, despite this game turning out to be closer than many expect. I think, ultimately, Italy will win in unconvincing fashion by a solitary goal following a stubborn display from New Zealand. A 1-0 win would eliminate New Zealand and see Italy, Slovakia and Paraguay fascinatingly poised going into the group’s final games.
In the final set of games Paraguay play New Zealand at Pietersburg, whilst Slovakia take on Italy in a crunch game in Jo’burg. Paraguay require a win from their final game or else the Slovakia/Italy match is rendered meaningless. They should do so winning by two goals without reply 2-0 against the Kiwis. Meanwhile, Italy and Slovakia know they will both go through unless Paraguay win. Furthermore, Slovakia know that they will only need a draw to progress even within this scenario due to better goal difference against New Zealand. The World Champions, meanwhile would realise that only a win would guarantee their passage into the next round, saving them from an embarrassing first round exit. In my opinion, Italy would succeed in beating the Slovaks 2-1 in a hard-fought game to top the group.
The standings would be, therefore, as follows:
- Team Win Draw Lose F A GD Pts
- Italy 2 1 0 3 1 2 7
- Paraguay 1 2 0 3 1 2 5
- Slovakia 1 1 1 5 4 1 4
- New Zealand 0 0 3 1 6 -5 0
Therefore, Italy would qualify to face Denmark in the next round, whilst Paraguay would face a daunting task against Group E winners Holland. Group G coming up!
