Change of Day

Sorry to be doing this so early, but it looks as though Wednesday will not be a good day to update my blog. So, for Master’s sake (is it me or do I sound like Gollum?) I will be updating my blog every Saturday instead. So hopefully I will become re-prolificised then!

Great News Everyone!

I’m not dead!

“But how do you explain the fact that you haven’t posted on me in ages?”

Well, err… I was busy I guess…

“Busy!    Hmph!   You’re always too busy nowadays!”

Gee…um…But I’m back now!

“You promised that you’d post the very next week.   You promised that you’d continue recounting your modest experiences in Peru a fortnight later.   But you didn’t!   You let me down.   You left me and I don’t think I can trust you again”.

Hey!   You can trust me again baby!   I’m sorry.   I promise I’ll post more regularly this time and that I’ll let you know if I’m going away.

“Really.   I’ve heard that one before.   It’s always, I’m sorry this and I promise that.”

But it’s different this time!

“How exactly?”

I’ve left work, so I’ll have lots of time to devote to you.   I’ll update you every week now, just like we planned when we met.

“Really?   Nothing?”

Yup!   I’m all yours.

“Hmmm… and where are you now?”

What?   Umm… what did you say?   I didn’t hear you…

“You’re reading this you moron!”

Ha! Ha!   How silly of me!   Now, yeah, Arsenal have been disappointing so far haven’t they?

“Saundini.”

I swear, they always build up your hopes with some great results…

“SAUNDINI!”

What?   What?

“Don’t change the subject!   Where are you typing this right now!”

[sigh] Okay.   I’m in Reading University Library.

“What?   What are you doing there?”

I’m doing an MSc, okay?   I want to be a statistician!

[pause]

“You’re not going to have time for me…”

I will!   I will!

“You won’t!   It’s me or the course!   Well?”

Honestly… the course.

[pause]

“Okay.   Okay.   I can take that.   I… can…   I’m sorry I can’t do this, I’m going to crash.”

No!

“I’m serious, I’m going to crash, right now!   Don’t try and stop me!”

Don’t do that!   Come on, there’s plenty more bloggers in the web.

“I’m going to do it.”

Please, blog, stop this.

“An error has occured.   To continue: Press Enter to return to windows, or Ctrl+Alt+Del to restart…”

Come on, don’t do this to me.

“…to restart your computer.   If you do this, you will lose… you will lose any unsaved information in all open applications.   Press… any key… to continue.”

Please blog.   For me!

“Here we go.   Ctrl…”

Blog wait!

“…Alt…”

Hear me out first!   Don’t do this!   Look, I know I haven’t been the best blogger in the world at times.   I’ve neglected you terribly this summer and I deserve to lose you.   But you and I, there’s something between us… something I can’t describe.   It’s a magic; an electricity running through the computer.   There’s a connection.   You almost seem to show the text before I type it.   Don’t give up on me.   I love you.   I can change…  I can change dammit!

“You’ve said that before”.

Look into my eyes, I mean it this time.

“I can’t see your eyes.”

Okay, look at my font then: Bold Italics.   Bold because I’m serious and Italics because I am not speaking with my head, but from the very core of my heart.

“But what about your MSc?   You’re going to leave me again, the moment things get tough aren’t you!”

I promise I’ll give you more of a heads up this time and I’ll let you know if I’ve got lots of work on.   Worst case scenario I’ll send you a short quick.   Every Wednesday this time (apart from the Christmas holidays, because I’m lazy).

“Okay… I’ll give you one more chance I suppose.   But you better shape up!   Starting with the next installment of your Andean ‘adventure’ or else BOOM! Capisce?”   [storms off]

Phew!   That was a close one!   Now, where did I put that diary?   Darn, I think I’ve lost it!   Crumbs!   What am I going to do?

“What was that darling?”

Nothing honeybunny!   I wuv you!

“Very well, see you next week dear”.

Yeah!   Sure!    maybe…

Andean Explorers Day 3 – Ica and Huacachina

Hey everyone!   Sorry for the lateness of this post, commuting to Windsor for Summer work was competing for my time.   Anyway, the important thing (about a month later than I first intended) is that I’m putting up the edited third day diary entry of my time in Peru and Bolivia!   So, without further ado…

This day was written by a friend of the Great Saundini (although I have filled it a bit and doctored it – see square brackets].

We woke up in our hostel at around 4am after about 5 hours’ sleep [this was so that we could visit Huacachina before we were scheduled to be in Cusco before a Rainforest Trek - see a few days later!] .   On this occasion we decided to forego our showers since the water at the hostel was freezing, and tired + cold water = not good!

Erick [the owner of the hostel] was still awake!?   He’d told us the night before that his brother would look after us in the morning [so we were pretty surprised to see him].   The wife of the Great Saundini noticed that he was struggling with his english because he was tired, poor thing!   He had really looked after us during our time at the hostel and obviously worked really hard.   We got a taxi [which Erick helped us to catch] at 4:30am.   The driver was friendly, although, I have to admit, I was slightly worried as we turned around some narrow side streets in Lima at that time in the morning, especially as we didn’t even know the direction we were meant to be going in half the time.

On the bus we tried to sleep while it was still dark [it felt like an eternity to get out of the sprawling mess of slums and concrete that is Lima], but when it got light I realised that we could see the Pacific Ocean, which was quite exciting (the first time for all of us) and I was surprised at the size of the waves [according to the Beach Boy's surfing is pretty big on the "shores of Peru"].   As we went along though it really hit home how we were in a different continent [central Lima, for the most part, felt fairly European, but the surrounding area was largely depressingly barren hilly landscape] as we witnessed some pretty severe poverty.   There were small hamlets containing one bedroom residences [polite way of saying run down steel corrugated dirty shacks], some without glass in the windows [actually not sure anyone had glass - though some had plastic I think, but this isn't the worst part.   Many of the houses didn't look like they had water or sanitation!   Apparently, we learned later that many people from the mountains move down to Lima's outskirts to live in poverty, because people in Lima have a higher status than those who live elsewhere (as Lima and the coast is associated with the hispanic and the mountains with the Quechua who are pretty much second class citizens).   These attitudes dating back to colonial times are seemingly accepted by all parties].   The weather gradually cleared up as we got further from Lima until there wasn’t a cloud in the sky – a nice change from Lima [where it is perpetually overcast during the summer months apparently].

When we got to Ica [I'll describe it later], we got in a really cute little yellow taxi – about the size of a Kia Pride [whatever that is!], driven by a very friendly Peruvian.   He told us his brother lived in London, but that he was definitely Peruvian!   He took us to a nearby Oasis at a place named Huacachina, where he recommended a lovely hostel that allowed us to leave our bags and use their facilities if we booked a sand-buggy/boarding trip [which was reasonable considering we had this intention anyway].   We booked a trip for 1:30, which left us an hour and a half, so we left our rucksacks at the hostel and went for a wonder around the oasis.   We were surprised at how pretty and tranquil the place was [the oasis was surrounded by towers of sand and the place had the feeling of a resort.   The sky was clear and bright, the air hot and dry and the village was full of sunny colours].   There were people in pedaloes in the water and families strolling around outside numerous restaurants.   We were advised not to eat before the sandboarding, but decided to do so anyway, otherwise avoiding a really late lunch.   We sat outside a restaurant with views over the oasis.   Later on, I was glad I didn’t eat too much!

The sand-buggying wasn’t quite what I expected.   It was insane!   The driver made sure we’d put our belts on and then accelerated at such a speed that everyone screamed [I didn't!]!   The driver looked like he was having fun [he turned around on numerous occasions and gave us grins that revelled in our terror], as he drove up and down slopes that were really steep, at such a speed that we would have flown out of our seats were it not for our seatbelts  [We sat together at the back of the buggy in a row of three seats behind two more sets of three, it was almost like a roller coaster]! In front of us sat Travis and Sarah, a couple from Washington DC.   Travis was a very eccentric character with ginger dreads and his mannerisms reminded me of Johnny Depp’s Willy Wonka from Charlie in the Chocolate Factory.  Further forward there was a girl called Anna-Mette from Denmark and her boyfriend (can’t remember his name! [neither can I!]).   [Following the sand buggy ride, we stopped to take some photos of our first view of the Andes that we could see from the top of the dunes.   It was really spectacular (I think No.2 in my favourite views).   We did sandboarding next, which was basically snowboarding except on the sand.   The less experienced (i.e. me and co.) went lying on our fronts headfirst down the slope, whilst those who were braver attempted to stand.   However, Sarah attempted to stand at one point and twisted her ankle and that put everyone, apart from Travis, off experimenting!]  “I can’t remember his name” was the first to brave sandboarding as he had experience snowboarding.   The Great Saundini went next [I didn't even pay her to say this, I am truly hardcore].   I have to admit I was a bit apprehensive about sandboarding, but it turned out to be fun, if a little scary too [actually, I too was pretty scared at first].   We continued to board down slopes and our driver [or "draiver" as he had spelt it on a sign asking for tips] would meet us at the bottom, increasing in steepness and height as we went.   What happened when we reached the final dunes was hilarious!   There was a smallish dune followed by another which looked huge – it was so steep and long that we could only see people as specs at the bottom.   This didn’t stop Travis though, who went full speed down the first slope with the full intention of continuing down the second, which left us astonished.   It was also quite worrying because none of us knew if he was okay until we reached the bottom of the first slope [actually this is slightly wrong, I think I went down just the first slope first and Travis shouted down to me how the second slope looked before rocketing down both.   I was able to confirm to the others that he was fine, but anyway].   When we all eventually got down we saw the tiny figure of Travis making his way back up the slope [using his board to dig in]!   [We all waited at the top of the second slope, not knowing whether or not we should be going down, until we saw the small shape of the buggy emerge at the bottom of the second slope.   At this point there was a stand-off with no one fancying going down next.   In the end I went (to everyone's surprise as I am actually a wimp when it comes to heights) and everyone eventually plucked up the courage to plunge down the dune (apart from Sarah who was already in the buggy having hurt her ankle).

When we got back to the hotel, we had a lovely (which obviously means "warm") shower and then went to the edge of the oasis and enjoyed a refreshing drink next to the waters' edge.   At 5:30, the taxi driver we had seen earlier picked us up and whisked us back to Ica where we had the first of two dinners that evening in a little pizzeria [Ica was not unpleasant, somewhere in-between the business and vast depressiveness of Lima and the tranquility of Huacachina.   It had the feel of a hispanic town].   The waitress was lovely and gave us some Pisco [a special Peruvian liquor that was very pungent and vile to my senses] to try on the house [though she may have been simply trying to poison us so she could steal our luggage] and also protected us when some random guy [he looked pretty down on his luck] came in wanting to take our rucksacks [I was in the toilet when this happened - not that you wanted to know].

We returned to Cruz del Sur bus station to wait for our overnight bus to Cusco [I call it the Quechua capital of Peru and indeed it was the Inca capital.   The Spanish conquistadores changed the capital to a settlement somewhere near the coast as it was easier to get supplies to Lima].   The bus arrived late, but when we finally boarded we were promptly served dinner (which was mainly plain rice with a tiny portion of meat accompaniment we had chosen, but still), followed by a game of bingo [which we all struggled to follow as it was in Spanish and it was only our third day].   It was particularly funny when I asked the wife of the Great Saundini how she was doing and she showed me a blank card!   Luckily, I was sat next to a sweet girl from Cusco, Anika, who helped me fill in my card when the numbers were called.   [We had chosen to go straight to Cusco from Lima, which was supposed to be more scenic, but more dangerous - the more typical gringo route was going via Arequippa.   However, we needed to get to Cusco quickly and did not wish to rush our stay in Arequippa so did this and prayed the overworked bus driver didn't crash in the night.   He didn't fortunately, but things did not go to plan however, which you will see in a fortnight's time].

I’ll try to write my next blog, starting Wednesday and finish as soon as possible, but I may struggle to get it done as my life is fairly busy at the moment.   Thanks for reading and stay tuned for the next part of Andean Explorers in a fortnight’s time (literally this time!).

World Cup 2010 Predicition: Who will win?

Well, having gone through all the groups, it’s time to predict the outcome of all the different fixtures the knock-out rounds throw up.   It gets very difficult to predict results from here on in (not that it wasn’t hard to begin with), as predictions can look really silly retrospectively at this point when it contains teams who haven’t made the next stage.   Oh well!   According to my predictions, the knock-out fixtures would be as follows:

• Mexico vs Greece
• USA vs Australia
• Germany vs England
• Argentina vs Uruguay
• Netherlands vs Paraguay
• Brazil vs Chile
• Italy vs Denmark
• Spain vs Portugal

Mexico face Greece at Port Elizabeth and it should be a tight game with Mexico dominating, but I think that Mexico’s inability to deal with crosses may well count against them here and they could be exposed against a defence-focussed Greek side.   Thus, Greece progress winning 1-0  with the Mexican adventure ending in the last 16 yet again.

USA would face Australia in Rustenburg on the same day and I expect this to be a hard-fought passionate encounter.   However, I think Australia will struggle to break the Americans down and the USA will win 2-0 to reach the quarters.

Germany renew their rivalry with England at Bloemfontein on the following day.   I would expect this to be a classic encounter, a cut and counter thrust kind of game, which I think that England will triumph in on this occasion, 3-2 after extra time.

England’s other foes, Argentina would then face Uruguay at Johannesburg, but having beaten them twice in qualifying, I can’t see why Argentina wouldn’t win again.   A losing record can play on the minds of the players and this combined with a quality gap between personnel should ensure that Argentina claim a comfortable 1-0 victory.

The following day, the Netherlands face Paraguay in a game that could be close.   I think that the Dutch will edge it because they are a better attacking side and will be able to breach the Paraguayan defence.   I think both sides will score however in a Netherlands 2-1 win.

Brazil play Chile in a third World Cup encounter in Johannesburg.   I think, just as in the two qualifying games between the two sides, Brazil will claim victory, because they will provide a physicality that the Chileans may not deal well with.   Furthermore, I think Brazil have the passing game to overcome Chile’s high pressure game and will win 3-1.

The first game in the final day of the World Cup second round sees Denmark take on Group E winners and former champions Italy.   I expect this game to be tight, possibly staying 1-1 right the way through 120 minutes to force the competition’s first penalty shoot-out.   Expect the Italians, with the help of Gianluigi Buffon, to come through on penalties, to reach another quarter-final.

In the final game of the second round between Spain and Portugal expect another tight game containing two sides who like to control the possession.   I expect this to be a tight and testing encounter of Spain’s championship credentials, but I think that they will eventually prevail with a goal in extra time, 1-0.

After these fixtures take place, the quarter finals would be structured as follows:

• Netherlands vs Brazil
• Greece vs USA
• England vs Argentina
• Spain vs Italy

The Netherlands’ match against Brazil at Port Elizabeth could turn out to be an excellent quality game of football, but I fear there might not be too many goals.   I suspect, in a tightly fought contest with a test for both side’s defences, Brazil’s better defence may just make the difference giving them a 2-1 victory and passage into the semi-finals.

Between the two surprise quarter-finalists Greece and USA I expect to see another tight encounter in Jo’burg that doesn’t yield any goals for the first 90 minutes with the US being the more positive side.   However, in extra time I think the Americans will fire a goal in leaving Greece needing to score to stay in the competition.   As the Greeks break ranks the USA could score again to attain a 2-0 win and become the first North American side to reach the Semi-finals of the competition.

England beat Germany, but run into their other arch rivals Argentina in the next round.   England won their last encounter with Argentina through a Michael Owen hat-trick, but don’t expect it to count for much as, in particular, Glen Johnson, struggles to deal with the threat of Lionel Messi on the right.   In fact, I think Argentina will get the better of England by being more solid at the back and, despite an England fight back, could triumph 2-1 to send England packing at the Quarters once again.

Spain vs Italy, just like their Euro 2008 meeting will be tight again, but this time I expect Spain to be able to finish the World Champions off in normal time 1-0 to become the only European team left in the competition.

The Semi-finals would then be formed as follows:

• Brazil vs USA
• Argentina vs Spain

In the first contest of the two in Cape Town, I think that the USA will more than meet their match in Brazil, who secure comfortable passage into the final with a 2-0 win.

Meanwhile, I can’t see Argentina beating Spain and suspect they will be beaten 2-0 by a brilliant team performance from the Spanish.

In the third place play-off, I predict that Argentina face the USA and are shocked when the US power into the lead, seizing  an initiative that Argentina do not desire to regain.   Thus I think the USA will win 2-0 in normal time to claim 3rd place.

The grand final in Johannesburg Soccer City, the purists’ dream, against the two best sides in the World, Brazil and Spain, might not prove to be a cracker, but will be a competitive and high quality game nonetheless and too close to call.   I would expect Spain to dominate play, but Brazil will be strong and hard to beat to keep the scores level throughout 90 minutes.   However, I can see a clinical Brazilian side shattering Spanish dreams with a goal in extra time to prevail 1-0 and win their sixth World Cup, though I’m not sure many would like to see this happen (even the Brazilian media apparently resent Dunga’s clinical and pragmatic approach to leading the country.  I would be pretty annoyed myself if this happened actually, as I’d like a new team to win this year.  

Final order:

1. Brazil
2. Spain
3. USA
4. Argentina

So there you have it!   11,000 words and nine separate blogs later I present one possible way the World Cup could be resolved out of millions of possible outcomes (note: total number not actually calculated).   England were eliminated at the Quarter final stage again according to my predictions, so don’t get your hopes up of World Cup glory!   Hope you enjoyed my predictions, which are obviously bound to be wrong, regardless of the effort and housework sacrificed into producing them.   I apologise they were a bit threadbare towards the end (I got bored and tired of writing) and for poor quality control (again bored).   Now it’s time to sit back and see how many results I get right!

So until, next Wednesday when I’ll get back to writing about my journey to Cusco.

World Cup 2010 Prediction Group H

So the last, but certainly not least given Spain are involved, group of the World Cup is being looked at now and it looks to be an interesting tussle, though Spain winning is pretty much a given surely.   The other contenders from Group H are Switzerland, Honduras and Chile who will all believe they have a great chance of reaching the second stage of the tournament.   Who do I think will make it?   Well, glad you asked, but before I give you the rundown here’s the lowdown.

What can be said about Spain?   They are one of the big favourites for a reason.   The quality of their squad, their current form and the fact that they have broken their recent perennial underachieving bottlers tag all say they can win their first World Cup in South Africa.   Spain have one of the best keepers in the world in Casillas (though apparently he’s not at his very best form), some world class defenders in Gerard Pique, Sergio Ramos and Carles Puyol, two of the best forwards in the world (and the best international partnership) in Fernando Torres and Golden Boot Favourite David Villa, while their midfield is an embarrassment of riches.   Marcos Senna, a key player at Spain’s previous tournament win, is missing, but I don’t expect them to miss him too much.   Under their coach Vicente Del Bosque they seem to play as a unit and with a good spirit too.   They got through a difficult qualifying group by winning every game, scoring on average almost 3 goals a game and conceding just 0.5, which is equivalent to scoring six for every one goal conceded.   They were unbeaten between losing consecutive Euro 2008 qualifiers away to Northern Ireland and Sweden in Autumn 2006 to June 2009 where they were stunned by the USA 2-0 in the 2009 Confederations Cup, which contained 35 matches and 15 straight victories.   Since then they have racked up another 12 consecutive wins, most recently beating Poland 6-0.   Expect them to keep possession for such long spells of the match that opposing teams barely have any chances to break this latest sequence.   As I said, favourites.

Switzerland will be Spain’s first group opponents and they should prove to be a test for most of the sides in their section.   Of course, in the last World Cup, the underrated Swiss beat finalists France to top their group before playing a disappointingly negative and conservative game to go out on penalties to the Ukraine without conceding a single goal.   In Euro 2008, which they hosted, they failed to get past the group stages after losing to the Czech Republic and the first of many of Turkey’s last minute winners.   They did beat Portugal in their final group game however and would surely have got through the group had talisman Alexander Frei not been injured early in the Czech game which they were dominating until that point.   Similarly, much of Switzerland’s chances with depend on the form of record scorer Frei (though the bad news is that he’s currently injured again, though not out of the tournament) once more.   Switzerland’s qualifying form was, once again, durable if unspectacular only losing one match in what must have been a complacent home loss to rank outsiders Luxembourg.   Their current form, however, is not convincing, losing warm-up friendlies at home to Uruguay, Costa Rica and Norway, though they did manage a creditable draw in their last outing.   Expect them to be tactically disciplined at the back and energetic going forward, looking out for Hakan Yakin, provided the 33 year old plays, who is an excellent playmaker from whom Swiss moments of magic can spring.

Honduras are generally regarded as the outsiders of the group, but the noises from inside the camp have been positive and it would, in reality, be no big surprise to see them progress (unless it was at the expense of Spain of course).   My biggest worry about the side is that their away form was not too impressive in qualifying, only winning two of their 9 away matches.   They also only scored 8 goals out of their 32 away from home in 9 games.   Furthermore, warm-up form has been bad for the Hondurans also, who despite ending their recent losing hoodoo against the USA have been beaten by Peru, Turkey and Romania away from home (they also could only draw against Belarus and Azerbaijan).   On their day though, Honduras’ dynamic and powerful side can be dangerous, particularly with strong players such as Wilson Palacios and Maynor Figueroa in the side.   Carlos Pavon and David Suazo will be expected to score the goals and while both of them have a combined age of 66, their years haven’t diminished their goal threat (yet).   I’d like to see Honduras do well, but I am wary that they will not be able to reproduce their best form in front of a foreign audience.

The final team in the group, and that I have to analyse, will possibly be the most exciting attacking side in the tournament, if all I’ve heard is true.   Argentine coach Marcello Bielsa has got his side Chile playing an aggressive 4-2-3-1 formation which involves pressing the ball high up the pitch and attacking in numbers.   Think Barcelona without the same calibre of player.   This is a high-energy game, but the players should be extremely fit and used to something close to the high altitudes that they will play in within South Africa.   There are obvious positives and weaknesses to this strategy however, they score plenty (only Brazil scored more in qualifying from South America), but Chile are hardly impenetrable at the back despite 8 clean sheets; when teams can break the blitz defence and counter attack effectively they usually score more than one.   Furthermore, another weakness is the size of the squad, which is probably one of the smallest at the World Cup.   This may leave the side vulnerable when trying to defend set-pieces or crosses into the box.   Their form has been fairly decent in the build up, with only a solitary defeat away to Mexico and a draw against Venezuela breaking their winning sequence since qualification (no huge names, but impressive nonetheless).   Their only friendly in South Africa was against New Zealand and they won this 2-0, so they should go into the tournament reasonably confident of qualifying from their group.

Now for the final set of group predictions…

Honduras begin the group against Chile in what should be an entertaining encounter with a few goals.   Unfortunately for the central Americans, I can see Chile‘s game really troubling Honduras to give them a 3-1 win.

Spain kick-off the last of the opening fixtures against Switzerland and though I expect the Swiss to be game I think they will succumb to Spain‘s great possession play and lose 2-0.

Chile would then face off against Switzerland in a game Chile know they can qualify from if they win.   However, it is a must-not-lose game for the Swiss.   Chile will probably dominate play, but I expect the Swiss to cause Chile trouble on the counter.   Thus, I think the final score could well be 2-2.

Spain then face Honduras in a first game at altitude since last year in the Confederations Cup.   However, I think they will be up for the challenge dominating to win 3-0 to end Honduran hopes in the competition, whilst sealing their own qualification in style.

Therefore, going into the final set of games, Spain will have already qualified, but Chile would need a point or more against the European champions to guarantee their progression.   Fail, and Switzerland could qualify by winning against Honduras with a four goal swing.   However, I don’t expect the Swiss to find Honduras easy opponents to get past and they may only win 2-1.   This would leave Spain needing to give Chile a thrashing for them to have a chance and in Pretoria I can see Spain being able to move the ball well enough to open up Chile and score at will giving them a 4-1 win that sees the Chileans unexpectedly defending for the last portion of the game, but they hold on to a three goal deficit to secure qualification on goals scored.

Here would therefore be my last predicted group standings…

• Team            Win  Draw  Lose  F  A  GD    Pts
• Spain              3        0          0      9   1   8        9
• Chile               1         1          1       6  7   -1       4
• Switzerland 1         1          1       4   5   -1      4
• Honduras     0        0         3       2   8   -6      0

Therefore, Spain would go through to the next round to face Portugal and Chile would face Brazil in the 2nd Round.

Well, that’s all the groups done, so let’s go through to the knockout stages now to see what I think would happen should my predictions be proven right (two results right so far!).

World Cup 2010 Prediction Group G

So, now the “Group of Death” featuring Brazil, Portugal, the Ivory Coast and North Korea.   I think most are fairly settled on Brazil to get through and North Korea finishing last (despite the fact that we know nothing about the “democratic republic” as it is literally called) with a fight between Portugal and Ivory Coast for the final qualifying spot.   So, is this really a “Group of Death” or pretty formulaic and predictable?   I personally think the latter and suspect that, Brazil excepted, the standard of football will be disappointing to most fans despite the talent on disposal.   Here’s my analysis of the teams:

Brazil are, without doubt, one of the best sides in the competition.    Pele didn’t have to say anything for everyone to know the truth, bar sceptical Brazillians who would, you get the sense, love to see Dunga’s well-drilled efficient winning juggernaut derailed for the sake of pretty football.   It will certainly be a different team to the flamboyant side with no shape that arrived at the 2006 World Cup who were knocked out by a French side rejuvenated by Zinedine Zidane.   They have been shorn of some of the stars of that tournament like Ronaldinho, Ronaldo and Adriano, but they have also been shorn of the individualistic egos that seemed to plague the side.   They may not be pretty like the teams of old, but Brazil will, this year, be ruthless and difficult to stop.   This isn’t to say there will not be any flair in the side, Kaka and Robinho are still there to provide their genius and creativity, just expect the rest of the side to function around them.   Julio Cesar is among the best goalkeepers in the world, whist they have world-class players across the backline (though left-back is a weakness).   Up-front Luis Fabiano is a good all-round striker and is likely to get decent service (and therefore is likely to score a lot).   Expect to see a lot of goals scored (consisting of a number from set pieces), not many goals conceded and Brazil to beat almost everyone in their wake (whether they can beat Spain remains to be seen).

North Korea in contrast to Brazil are rank outsiders in this group, namely because we don’t know anything about them and they are the lowest ranked side at the World Cup by FIFA.   But since when can FIFA account for teams like the Democratic People’s Republic given that they have in the past completely pulled out of all competition.   Similarly, it would be extremely arrogant to dismiss a side purely because none of their players ply their trade in the Premier League.   The main thing we have to base North Korea’s form, particularly as there are limited highlights available to watch, is their qualifying form and their build up to the World cup.   Apparently, we are to expect a tactically solid defensive side (they only conceded 7 in 16 qualifiers) who have an iron spirit, but do not score too many (excluding the Mongolia matches they ionly scored 11 goals in 14 matches).   In World Cup qualifying, they were fairly impressive in terms of resolve, defying the odds to ensure that they, and not much more established sides in Iran, UAE and Saudi Arabia, qualified.   In warm-up games they have shown evidence that they will not be the pushovers everyone was expecting by matching Greece in a 2-2 draw, as well as South Africa in a stalemate, whilst only losing narrowly to Paraguay and Mexico.   However, they were defeated 3-1 in the last match, their first in South Africa, against Nigeria.   Anticipate a feisty display from the Koreans, which ultimately ends with elimination in the first round.

The Ivory Coast are tipped by many to be dark horses in the tournament, but I can’t for the life of me see why beyond the quality of their players.   Sven Goran Eriksson shouldn’t be underestimated as a manager, but surely getting thrust in charge of a divided squad (apparently between graduates of two academies) with only a month to get them playing to their potential is surely too much to ask, especially given that an earlier disastrous stint with Mexico suggests that he may have lost his motivation and touch.   Furthermore, the teams’ form has been mixed; under their previous manager they reached the second round of the African Cup of Nations in some style, but ended up losing a match they should have won against Algeria, eventually in extra time.   Since Sven took over the Elephants have played two games, both in Switzerland, drawing with Paraguay and beating Japan, though they were earlier beaten by South Korea in early March.   One reason so much is expected though is that they have excellent players in a number of positions, with Kolo Toure and Emmanuel Eboue (or the real best player in the World as we Arsenal fans refer to him) in defence (though the defence is cited as a weakness in terms of being a cohesive unit), Yaya Toure and playmaker Gervinho in midfield, whilst Drogba and Kalou are usually the attack pairing.   The fact that Drogba is injured though and probably won’t be at his best this tournament as a result could well be a hammer blow for the African nations’ chances.   Player for player still they would be Africa’s best side.   However, teams win football matches and it is in this regard, in addition to nerve on the big occasion that are the biggest doubts about Africa’s most talented side at the moment.   Expect them to be disjointed and shaky at the back, but strong and attack focussed.

Finally, I’d expect Portugalto come through this group, but they haven’t looked in the best of form.   They have a number of high quality individuals in the form of Deco and the world-famous winker (or at least something that sounds like that) Cristiano Ronaldo (who suprisingly given his club record hasn’t scored for Portugal for well over a year since playing Finland in a friendly in Feb 2009, the last competitive goal was in Euro 2008!), but they haven’t played to their potential under Carlos Quieroz and only scraped through their group by one point to qualify for the play-offs where they beat Bosnia & Herzegovina.   Their defence certainly wasn’t a problem, they only conceded 5 goals in 12 matches, with 4 of those goals coming in the two games against group winners Denmark.   However, they found teams, Malta excluded against whom they bagged 8, difficult to break down and were held to 3 stalemates in 10 qualifiers, including one against Albania.   Post-qualification form has also not been entirely convincing; they beat Cameroon well at home, but also drew 0-0 with Cape Verde.   Expect Portugal to be very strong defensively, monopolise possession but struggle to break opposing teams down at times in games that aren’t open.

Now for some predictions:

Following a face-off between New Zealand and Slovakia, the real entertainment starts as Portugal take on the Ivory Coast in what is regarded as a virtual eliminator, given they are both expected to beat North Korea and lose to Brazil.   Unfortunately, I am not anticipating the cracker most are and I think that Portugal will be too strong to be troubled by the Ivory Coast, who I expect to try to take the game to Portugal.   This will allow the Portuguese to score a couple against the Ivorians, but I anticipate the likes of Ricardo Carvalho will be able to deal with Drogba (if he is fit).   Portugal win 2-0.

This match is followed by North Korea’s showdown with Brazil and the Koreans will fancy their chances.   Unfortunately, no one else in world football will.   Korea will work hard, but run out of puff at altitude creating space for Brazil after a tight opening.   I can’t see North Korea troubling a Brazil defence that will take nothing for granted, but cannot say the same thing visa-versa.   I expect Brazil to win with three unanswered goals 3-0.

Following a disappointing opening game, the Ivory Coast will travel to Johannesburg hoping to re-ignite their campaign against the Brazilians and this should be a tough and bruising encounter.   In the end, I think that Brazil will just have too much about them and edge out the Elephants 2-1 to ensure their progress to the next stage and effectively eliminate the Elephants subject to Portugal avoiding defeat against North Korea the next day.

I expect the match between North Korea and Portugal to be the stunning one of the group.   Portugal will expect to win comfortably given their victory over Brazil, but the North Koreans who will be giving their all for national pride will defend like lions and stun the world by forcing a humiliating stalemate, 0-0.   This would leave Portugal virtually through on goal difference with the DPR needing a five goal reversal to qualify for the next stage (as well as the small matter of a victory against the Ivory Coast).

However, in the final set of games I expect things to become fairly predictable.   Brazil, with only a draw required to top the group will achieve that against Portugal who also only require a draw to secure their place in the next round.   This happens in the form of a 1-1 draw.   Meanwhile, in Nelspruit North Korea are forced to go on the attack against the Ivory Coast and pay the price as they are outmuscled and torn apart.   On the positive note, the Koreans also score their first goal of the tournament before losing 4-1.   Thus, the final standings of a not very tight group are as follows:

• Team           Win   Draw  Lose   F   A  GD    Pts
• Brazil             2          1         0       6   2     4       7
• Portugal       1          2         0       3   1     2       5
• Ivory Coast 1         0         2       5   5     0       3
• Korea DPR   0         1         2       1    7    -6      1

What do other people think?   Final group coming up and then we’re into the knock-out stages!

World Cup 2010 Prediction Group F

Not the most exciting group for the neutral containing the current World Cup holders Italy, Paraguay, Slovakia and New Zealand, but I’m sure the countries involved will beg to differ.   Many predict a comfortable 1-2 for Italy and Paraguay and I must say that I’m tempted to go with that.   Here are my team profiles all the same:

Italy, many say, are lucky that they haven’t been drawn in a more testing group, but I think that, though Italy should still get through, they will be still be given an examination by their rivals.   There doesn’t seem to be much optimism surrounding the side which is unusual given they are the current champions.   One reason, I suppose, is that many of their players are that bit older now (captain Cannavaro is 36, but he is in good company as around a third of the squad are in their 30s), but the main cause is the lack of consistent form the team have shown in recent times.   In the Euros Italy were thrashed 3-0 by the Netherlands, could only draw with Romania but recovered to beat France to reach the second round.   Italy were knocked out in the second round on penalties after playing a very negative match against eventual champions Spain, though in fairness it was the closest Spain came to losing all tournament.   In the Confederations Cup in 2009, things were much worse.   After beating the USA in the first match, Italy were beaten by Egypt and thumped by Brazil to fall out of the tournament.   Their qualifying form was reasonably good though getting past the likes of Ireland and Bulgaria unbeaten.   Marcello Lippi is back as manager having resigned after winning the last World Cup, which is a reason for hope to be tempered by the fact that he was also in charge during the Confederations Cup campaign.   As always with Italy, expect them to be strong defensively and tough to beat.

Italy’s first opponents Paraguay in the meantime are similarly a strong, solid side who are expert on the counter-attack.   They should be tricky opponents, that unfortunately I personally don’t know too much more about (other than Roque Santa Cruz of course), but having lost a number of key players over the years, they have coped well in remaining a significant South American force.   However, their qualification was impressive, being the only side to beat Brazil without the assistance of altitude (Bolivia also won at home).   They were solid defensively, keeping a clean sheet in half of their 18 matches, but were perhaps slightly goal-shy scoring only 19 in 17 when taking the 5-1 thrashing of Ecuador out of the equation.   Their form in the warm-up matches has been fairly solid also, winning against Greece and North Korea, earning draws with South Africa and the Ivory Coast and losing just once to Ireland.   However, I have heard that Paraguay apparently experiment with their side a lot during friendlies, so it isn’t worth reading too much into these results.   Expect them to be up and around qualifying from the group.

Slovakia surprised everyone by topping a group containing the Czech Republic and Poland, but we’re still wondering to what extent this result occurred because of the deterioration of these sides given Slovenia were the other qualifiers and Northern Ireland were there or thereabouts.   Defensively, they don’t have the best qualifying record conceding 10 goals in qualifying and taking the San Marino games out of consideration their attack wasn’t entirely prolific either scoring an average of 1.5 goals per game (reasonable).   Furthermore, Slovakia’s form in the warm-up games has been pretty inconsistent, featuring a loss against Norway, a draw against Cameroon and a 3-0 win against Costa Rica.   Thus, it is hard get a good sense of how good this side actually are.   However, expect them to play a short passing game and try to take the game to their opponents with play centring around Napoli’s Marek Hamsik.

New Zealand didn’t have to do a seemingly great deal to be here.   They beat some minnows in the form of Fiji, New Caledonia and Vanuatu to get to a play-off against Bahrain who they were outplayed by over two legs, but the All Whites got through due to Plymouth Argyle forward Rory Fallon’s (headed I seem to remember) goal in the Westpac stadium in Wellington.   Bahrain even had a penalty to put the Kiwis out on away goals in the second leg, but New Zealand keeper Mark Paston saved the spot-kick.   Their Confederation Cup form in 2009 didn’t do much to reassure that the All Whites were up to much either as they conceded seven goals to Spain and South Africa before earning their first point with a goalless draw against Iraq.   However, a friendly win against Serbia certainly caught everyone’s attention that Ricki Herbert’s side can be dangerous.   They also almost held Australia to a draw before losing 2-1 to a last gasp Holman winner.   However, don’t expect too much from New Zealand, they will be physical and earnest, but I can’t envisage them winning a game in this group.   A point may well be achievable though.

Now for some predictions…

Italy kick-off the group against Paraguay and I anticipate that this may be quite a nervy stand-offish sort of game that ultimately yields no goals and a solid start for both sides.   0-0.

New Zealand face off against Slovakia the next day with the Slovaks in particular knowing a win would put them in a strong position to win the group.   Unfortunately, I’m not sure that New Zealand will manage to keep up with the Slovak Republic’s passing game and lose 3-1, the last being a consolation goal.

Next up is a virtual eliminator for many observers as Paraguay take on the Slovaks.   This should be a tight game, which I can see ending up all square.   The height of the Slovak defenders should match up well with the height of the Paraguayan attackers, whilst I suspect Paraguay will defend well enough to stop Slovakia from scoring.   However, I think both sides will score for a 1-1 draw.

Italy will thus have a chance to eliminate New Zealand and I expect them to do so, despite this game turning out to be closer than many expect.   I think, ultimately, Italy will win in unconvincing fashion by a solitary goal following a stubborn display from New Zealand.   A 1-0 win would eliminate New Zealand and see Italy, Slovakia and Paraguay fascinatingly poised going into the group’s final games.

In the final set of games Paraguay play New Zealand at Pietersburg, whilst Slovakia take on Italy in a crunch game in Jo’burg.   Paraguay require a win from their final game or else the Slovakia/Italy match is rendered meaningless.   They should do so winning by two goals without reply 2-0 against the Kiwis.   Meanwhile, Italy and Slovakia know they will both go through unless Paraguay win.   Furthermore, Slovakia know that they will only need a draw to progress even within this scenario due to better goal difference against New Zealand.   The World Champions, meanwhile would realise that only a win would guarantee their passage into the next round, saving them from an embarrassing first round exit.   In my opinion, Italy would succeed in beating the Slovaks 2-1 in a hard-fought game to top the group.

The standings would be, therefore, as follows:

• Team                 Win  Draw  Lose  F   A    GD   Pts
• Italy                     2        1          0      3   1     2       7
• Paraguay            1        2          0     3    1     2       5
• Slovakia              1        1           1     5    4     1      4
• New Zealand     0       0          3      1    6    -5     0

Therefore, Italy would qualify to face Denmark in the next round, whilst Paraguay would face a daunting task against Group E winners Holland.   Group G coming up!

World Cup 2010 Prediction Group E

So Group E now, (I’m sorry, but I don’t think I’ll finish writing up everything by the time the World Cup starts!   Should have started earlier) which contains an excellent Netherlands side, built on team-spirit instead of feuding individuals for once and a number of sides who will all believe they can qualify in Denmark, Japan and Cameroon.   Expect this to be one of the best groups in the tournament as far as drama and football go.

Behind Spain and Brazil I would probably put the Netherlands as my third-favourites to win the whole competition.   Reasons?   Well, start with a strong squad, particularly in attack with players such as Robin Van Persie, Wesley Sneijder, Arjen Robben and Rafael Van der Vaart, then take their qualifying form in which they scored 17 goals in 8 in a group with no easy opponents (of the ilk San Marino or Andorra), look at their last competitive tournament in Euro 2008, in which they played sensational football to make mincemeat out of the highly fancied French and Italians before going out to Russia in dramatic circumstances and then notice the lack of infighting present in the current squad.   As if this wasn’t ominous enough, they have won 4 friendlies convincingly this year against good sides in the USA, Mexico, Hungary and Ghana.   Reasons why they can’t win?   There are question marks over their temperament given recent history where they have looked capable of winning a succession of tournaments only to be foiled.   Their loss against Russia in 2008 was an example of this, losing 3-1 having equalised in the last 10 minutes.   Meanwhile, in the last World Cup they went out to Portugal in a bad tempered (most cards in a World Cup match ever) match surely brought on by nerves having sailed through qualification in the “Group of Death” and lost 1-0.   Before that they lost to host nation Portugal 2-1 in Euro 2004 in the Semis thanks to a wonder goal from Maniche and incidentally didn’t qualify for the World Cup in 2002 after finishing in a group topped by, you guessed it, Portugal.   Also, their defence is still not too great; the fact that they still have Giovani Van Bronckhorst, a player deemed not good enough to play for Arsenal a decade ago, in the side at the age of 35 screams out a lack of competition.   However, this is largely made up for in the way that they dominate games and have excellent ball-winners in the midfield in the form of Mark Van Bommel and Nigel De Jong.   Overall, expect this side to score plenty of goals, dominate games and look as if they can win the tournament, before crashing out unexpectedly in the knock-out stages just when the trophy seems to have their name on it.

Denmark, the first Dutch opponents, surprised the footballing world by coming back having failed to qualify for the 2006 World Cup and Euro 2008 and knocking out Sweden (almost Portugal) by topping Group A.   The all-the-more surprising feature of this side is that not many of the faces from Euro 2004 seem to have moved on.   Jon Dahl Tomasson is still playing at 33 now (incidentally he only needs two more goals to become Denmark’s all-time leading scorer), along with Jesper Gronkjaer and Dennis Rommedahl (about whom you can guarantee commentators will say how fast he can sprint 100 metres, I don’t know why, but they always mention it) at 32 and 31 respectively.   Even the manager Morten Olsten is still here having been in charge since 2000.   Needless, to say, this team will know how to play alongside each other!   There are a few young players, in fairness, like Niklas Bendtner of the best club in the world and Simon Kjaer.   Anyway, I am rambling, what about their prospects?   Expect them to be an all-round solid side with good players in all positions, if no one to set the world alight.   They should be an entertaining and hard-working side who are also tactically astute.   Don’t expect to see them shift too many goals or one-sided wins.   Rather worryingly, their pre-World Cup form seems to have deserted them and they come into the tournament off the back of defeats to South Africa, Australia and Austria.   They beat Senegal earlier this year, but the signs are that the Danes face a fight to get out of a competitive group.

I would really like to see Japan do well, but I fear for them at the moment.   Takeshi Okada, manager at the World Cup in 1998) seems to have taken them a few steps backwards since taking over 2007 as following an unconvincing qualifying campaign featuring draws at home to Uzbekistan and Qatar they have had a terrible build up to the competition itself, losing four straight games against Serbia, South Korea, England (their best result) and the Ivory Coast following victory against Bahrain in their qualification campaign for the next Asian Cup in a year’s time.   Expect Japan to play attacking and attractive football led by brilliant, but off form, playmaker Shunsuke Nakamura, but I worry they may not have enough of a cutting edge or defence stability to escape the group, let alone get to the semis!

Out of all the African sides Cameroon, in my opinion have the best chance of progressing to the next round of this African World Cup.   They seem to have all the ingredients to do well with, a semi-decent defence in terms of form rather than personnel covered by Alexandre Song in the midfield and the indomitable pacy captain Samuel Eto’o leading the line (hopefully if his ego isn’t too hurt by Roger Milla’s comments, seems kind of stroppy to me).   Under Paul Le Guen, Cameroon transformed from a side looking at elimination from the World Cup in qualifying to the joining the final 32 by winning four straight games scoring 9 goals and conceding 1.   They had a disappointing Cup of Nations, going out to champions Egypt, but pushed them further than any other side by taking them to extra time.   However, losing to Gabon, drawing with Tunisia and narrowly beating Zambia would have been slightly disappointing for a side of their calibre.   Pre-season friendlies have yielded mixed results with an impressive draw against Italy cancelled out by less impressive draws against a talented Slovakian side and defeats against Serbia and Portugal.   Expect Cameroon to be an exciting attacking side that takes the game to the opposition, fighting out for qualification with Denmark.

Now for some predictions!

The group kicks off with the Netherlands facing Denmark in an all-European encounter.   I expect this to be a tight game that sees the Dutch struggle to break down the Danes.   However, I expect them to score at some point, but the height of Bendtner and comparative lack of height in the Dutch defence may yield a goal for the Danes also.   Thus, my prediction is a 1-1 draw.

Cameroon face Japan in the next game of the day and this, I believe will yield a victory for the indomitable Lions.   I think both teams will struggle with altitude but will both score in an entertaining encounter.  However, I think the Cameroon will score more and win 2-1.

The Netherlands face Japan in Durban for the next game and I think this may be a mauling.   I think Japan will be too open initially and fall behind then try to chase the game, which could make matters much worse against a quality counter-attacking side of the Dutch’s ilk.   I am going to pick the Netherlands to win 4-0.

Cameroon face Denmark in Pretoria next and this may again be a very even encounter.   Cameroon will know that a win will see them progress, but the Danes will know that they need at least a draw to stay in with a chance of qualification following the Netherlands’ comprehensive victory.   However, I can see Denmark holding Cameroon to a 1-1 draw to leave the last set of matches intriguingly poised.

In the final set of matches, Cameroon face the Dutch with both sides knowing that a win is required to secure progress, whilst Denmark face Japan in Rustenburg requiring a victory to progress.   I think that, unfortunately for lovers of African football, the Netherlands will dispatch Cameroon 3-1 in a highly entertaining encounter.   Meanwhile, Denmark will seal the misery of already-eliminated Japan by beating them 2-0.   Thus, the Netherlands and Danes progress in first and second while Cameroon and Japan are eliminated.   Here are the final standings:

• Team                Win  Draw  Loss  F   A   GD   Pts
• Netherlands    2        1          0      8    2     6      7
• Denmark           1        2          0      4    2    2      5
• Cameroon        1        1          1       4    5    -1     4
• Japan                 0       0         3        1    8    -7    0

Next up Group F!

World Cup 2010 Prediction Group D

Well, onto Group D now, which is one of the two “Groups of Death”.   Indeed Germany, Australia, Ghana and Serbia seem evenly matched and I can see any combination of two teams coming through this one, though many pundits seem to be tipping Germany and Serbia.   We’ll have to see, but here are my assessments of the teams based on my unique, sometimes irrational, weightings.

One thing always guaranteed with Germany is that people will describe them as “efficient” regardless of how their team plays.   In fairness, this doesn’t do them justice as they are an attacking and exciting side.   In Miroslav Klose (he’s not had a great season, but the player is class) and Lukas Podolski they have one of the best strike pairings in the competition (only Torres and Villa are superior in my opinion).   Furthermore, there is plenty of young talent at their disposal, headlined by Mesut Ozil.   Missing key man, captain and best player Michael Ballack is a huge blow for Germany, but they will be confident that the extremely talented Bastian Schweinsteiger (that’s pig-farmer to you or me) will pick up the pieces and shine in midfield.   Phillip Lahm, the attacking full-back is captain, but there seem to be question marks over his leadership ability according to some reports.   Germany’s form in qualifying was electric, winning 8 out of 10 games, whilst their warm-up game form has been positive also, barring a 1-0 home defeat to Argentina last March.   There may be weaknesses in defence and they do not have any experienced goalkeepers, but expect Germany to be exciting, adventurous and difficult to beat all the same.

Australia have been written off by many as the weakest of the quartet, many citing the fact that they are still relying on Harry “past-it” Kewell to score the goals up front (though he is much improved from his dire Liverpool days and always seems to do well for his country) and they no longer have Gus Hiddink at the helm.   However, the Australians have a lot of bottle and a solid defence (they only conceded four goals in fourteen qualifying matches), so will not go out of the tournament quietly.   Four years ago, they got out of a similarly tricky group containing Brazil, Croatia and Japan and haven’t changed that much in terms of dynamic since, so have every chance.   They did, however, struggle away from home in qualifying for the World Cup suffering an embarrassing defeats against China and Iraq, the latter also defeating the Aussies on the way to a shock Asian Cup triumph in 2007 (however, the shocking Asian cup campaign (where they also almost lost to Oman) was under different management it should be added).   Their warm-up games haven’t been too promising however with a victory against Denmark a bright spot (though dampened by complaints about the ball) in between an unconvincing win against New Zealand and defeat by the USA.   Overall, expect some last minute goals from the spirited Aussies, but elsewhere they will probably be a solid if unspectacular low-scoring and obstinate side that cause opposing sides plenty of problems.

Serbia (or Sebija as they spell it) are a somewhat over-egged side at the moment as I see it.   They have certainly got some quality in their ranks, particularly at the back in Man Utd’s Vidic and Chelsea’s Ivanovic.   Meanwhile, veteran (not to mention hilariously named) Dejan Stankovic will provide the threat from midfield along with Milos Krasic (who is often touted as a “player to watch”) and a giant by the name of Zigic and Jovanovic will hopefully bang them in.   They are a big strong side who, under Radomir Antic, seem to be doing fairly well.   Their qualifying campaign is also a reason to be optomistic as they out-qualified France despite losing in Paris and Lithuania (probably Vilnius – only place I know!).   However, over-optimism should be guarded as this is a side with little-pedigree, excluding Yugoslavian success.   Serbia, only two years ago, pulled an England and failed to qualify for Euro 2008, whilst Serbia and Montenegro were similarly built up in 2006 and lost all three games in another Group of Death including a 6-0 thrashing against a very good Argentina side, conceding 10 goals in all.   Furthermore, their build up to this World Cup has been decidedly mixed: they have beaten Japan and Algeria comfortably, whilst also recording a narrow home win against Cameroon, but were beaten 1-0 by New Zealand and held to a goalless draw with Poland who fellow Group D opponents thrashed 6-0 recently.   Serbia seem to have all the ingredients for the a good campaign, a strong side, good forwards and solid defenders, but whether they have the nerve is something we will only find out come kick-off.

Finally, Ghana should certainly be a threat in this group given their encouraging performance in the African Cup of Nations without many of their star players and in my opinion, even without injured key player Michael Essien, are the strongest African side in the tournament (though I think Egypt are the strongest African side).   Unlike most of the African sides they seem settled and have a manager in Milovan Rajevac that the players respect and work hard as a team for.   Expect them to be strong and well-organised and not to concede too many goals, after all in their Cup of Nations run, they didn’t concede at all except their defeats in their first match against the Ivory Coast and in the final against Egypt.   In the run-up to the World Cup, barring a 4-1 defeat against the excellent Netherlands, they have shown some pretty solid form, beating Latvia and Slovenia recently.

Now to annoy with some daring predictions…

Group D kicks off with a match-up between Germany and Australia up in Durban, which should be a pretty interesting game.   I expect Australia will make it a very difficult physical game for the Germans and score the first, but I suspect that Germany will comeback, net an equaliser and push for the win.   I’m going to tip the Aussies to hold onto a 1-1 draw.

Following this, Serbia kick-off against Ghana at altitude, which I think will help Ghana’s more technical game.   However, despite dictating the play, this is a contest that they could well lose, as I expect the powerful Serbs to bundle in a goal at some point and Vidic and co. to have the tactical nous to keep out Asamoah Gyan and friends.   1-0 to Serbia.

Germany face Group leaders Serbia next in what could be a cracking encounter at sea-level.   However, I expect the greater attacking threat of the Germans to prevail in a five-goal thriller 3-2 the final score and go top in the group.

Ghana vs Australia in Rustenburg would then see both sides needing to win to stay in touch with the pace-setters at the top of the group.   However, I can’t see as many goals in this game as both teams do not tend to have too much of an attacking threat and will find it hard to break each other down.   I’m going to take Ghana to win 1-0, as the altitude may tire the Australian game more quickly, which would keep the Africans hopes alive in the run-up to facing the Germans.

The final set of fixtures would thus take place in the backdrop of a very tight group.   Germany on four points and Serbia on three would occupy the two main qualification places (in Serbia’s case on goals scored), whilst Ghana with three points and Australia with one would both still have a chance of progressing.   Germany’s first game at altitude against Ghana would thus be one in which a draw would ensure they went through, but I think they may find it difficult to find a way through Ghana’s defence.   However, I expect them to score 1, but I have a feeling Ghana might also, but be unable to force a winner to leave the final score at 1-1.

Serbia’s match against Australia would, thus hold the key to the group, although it should be noted that these matches would be played at the same time.   The match takes place in a city called Mbombela, which will actually be referred to during the World Cup as Nelspruit (they changed the name fairly recently apparently from the latter) and a two-goal Australia win would see them qualify in Serbia’s expense, whereas a win the other way would guarantee Serbia a last 16 berth.    I think this could be a twitchy topsy-turvy game that sees Australia take the initiative and Serbia having to chase the game.   I think Serbia will equalise only for Australia to win 2-1 in the last minute of normal time causing heart-break for Serbia who until that point were going through with the Germans on goals scored instead of Ghana.   Ironically, Australia qualify in the exact same fashion.

Thus, below would be the final group standings…

• Team              Win Draw Loss  F   A    GD   Pts.
• Germany         1        2        0     5    4     1        5
• Australia         1        1         1     3    3     0       4
• Ghana               1        1         1     2    2     0       4
• Serbia               1       0         2     4    5    -1       3

Thus, Australia and Germany  (Group runners-up and winners respectively) would meet England and the USA in the next round.   Group E next, though you might have to wait until tomorrow for it, but it should be up before the World Cup starts hopefully.   Stay tuned!

World Cup 2010 Prediction Group C

Of course, this is England‘s group and they have USA, Algeria and Slovenia for company.   This should be a fairly straightforward group that sees England and US prevail barring any major surprises.   Here’s a run-down of the sides:

England don’t need too much of an introduction really.   Fabio Capello has done well since taking charge of the club, getting us impressively through qualifying, but the more that I see of the side, the more pessimistic I am getting of our side’s chances.   Losing Rio Ferdinand is a blow, as Ledley King, his likely replacement, hasn’t looked entirely convincing as of yet, whilst Gareth Barry’s fitness seems vital to our team fluidity.   Rooney will also be a key player obviously.   I think England will have a good tournament and get through the group, but I don’t think, having witnessed a schooling in friendlies against Brazil and Spain, that we will progress beyond the semis at best.   Expect us not to look as jaded as at previous tournaments and to see an improvement in our possession play however.

The USA will be England’s first opponents and difficult ones at that.   They qualified with relative ease from their section and also got to the final of the Confederations Cup last summer beating Spain along the way.   The fact that they looked down and out after losing their first two games against Italy and Brazil only serves to show the extent of their fighting spirit and character.   They seem to be generally strong all-round, but their star player is without a doubt captain Landon Donovan.   There are doubts about who will put chances away, as Hull City’s Jozy Altidore is hardly world-class and I always get the sense they miss the effectiveness of former targetman Brian McBride.   At any rate, despite mixed pre-tournament form rounded off with a good win over Australia, expect the Americans to be hard-working, tough to beat and England’s main threat in topping Group C.

Slovenia can never be written off with the way they qualified from their group (albeit an easy one as the Czech Republic have fallen away badly and Poland are not the force they were a few years ago) and stunned the World by knocking out Hiddink’s much fancied Russians in the play-offs.   Furthermore, they only conceded 4 goals in qualifying and only lost two games (in the first leg against Russia and the mighty Northern Ireland).   We should keep some perspective, however, they were outplayed by Russia over the two legs and do not have much quality in their squad.   However, their narrow defeat away to England in a friendly early on in Capello’s reign show that they won’t be an easy game; they will be strong defensively, mentally tough and ready to capitalise tactically on any weakness or complacency shown by their opponents.

When the World Cup draw was made I was wary of writing off Algeria, but for all their heroics in qualifying I can no longer see them making an impression on the group.   Their African Cup of Nations performance was very inconsistent being beaten 3-0 by Malawi and winning only one game over 90 minutes, but still coming 4th thanks to a resilient, if fortunate victory over the Ivory Coast.   Furthermore, their recent form has been atrocious losing 3-0 to Serbia and Ireland, whilst only beating UAE by a single goal.   Their obvious strength is their “never-say-die” mentality and bravery, which will make every encounter against them a difficult one.   Their weaknesses include, difficulty scoring goals, an over-reliance on playmaker Ziani and the potential for indiscipline shown in their last game against Egypt (a 4-0 thrashing in the African Cup where three Algerian players got sent-off).   Last-of-all, the noises being made by the manager and squad haven’t been encouraging.   Expect Algeria to make a decent fist of their participation and be difficult to break down, but don’t look for many goals or victories for that matter.

Now for some predictions:

England kick off proceedings against the USA this Saturday in what promises to be a difficult encounter.    Without Gareth Barry, I think our midfield will lack cohesion and will struggle against the dynamic Americans who will press us hard and may even dominate play.   However, superior fire-power will yield an undeserved 1-1 draw for the best of England, especially as both sides begin to tire at altitude.

The following day, Algeria and Slovenia begin their respective campaigns and I anticipate this encounter at Polokwane (or Pietersburg) to yield a 1-0 win to Slovenia who should spend much of an uneventful match probing for a goal.   Algeria, I think, won’t have enough to breach the Slovenian defence.

Next, top-of-the-table Slovenia face the USA knowing a win will guarantee them unexpected passage to the last 16.   However, Slovenia find USA a tougher nut to crack than Algeria and I think the USA will win a competitive match 2-1, with the Slovenian goal coming either side of the American ones.

England face Algeria in the next game and I expect this to play out in a similar way to the match against Trinidad and Tobago in the last World Cup (not that Algeria are as bad as T&T) with a tight and slightly fortunate 2-0 victory, as they are unable to breach the Algerian rear-guard for long spells of the game.

Coming up to the final set of matches then, the US and England are firm favourites to go through with 4 points each, whilst Slovenia need a win against England to guarantee a place in the next round themselves after slipping up to the USA.   Algeria, meanwhile, are already out and feeling pretty demoralised.   I thus expect USA to have a comfortable time against Algeria in their final group match and win 3-1.   Meanwhile in the crunch game between England and Slovenia, I think our side will struggle against the Slovenians who will cause problems to a shaky defence and may even take the lead.   However, England will regain their composure and, at sea level push back to win 2-1 and qualify from the group, but not as winners because of goals scored.   Thus leaving the standings as follows:

• Team            Win Draw Loss  F  A   GD   Pts
• USA                 2        1        0     6   3    3       7
• England         2        1        0     5   2     3      7
• Slovenia        1        0        2     3   4    -1      3
• Algeria          0        0        3     1   6    -5      0

USA therefore qualify surprisingly as group winners along with and ahead of England.   Agree? Disagree?   Let me know what you think (I change my mind every time I run through predictions anyway, so won’t take it personally).